Preview: 2023 Grammy Awards
Predictions on the 2023 country Grammy Award nominees and what to expect on the show. Hear insights on past nominees and historical statistics, plus how exposure from the show benefits the country music genre. Featured artists: Miranda Lambert, Willie Nelson, Zach Bryan, Dolly Parton, Luke Combs, Carly Pearce, and more.
Listen to the Podcast - or read the Show Notes below!
Show Notes
The Grammys will air this Sunday on CBS, and we haven't heard a ton about this year's performances.
Typically, we get a few waves of performers, but we've only got one big announcement and we know for sure that Mary J. Blige, Lizzo, Sam Smith, Brandy Carlisle, and Harry Styles are all set to perform. As far as the country world, Luke Combs will be performing, and Kacey Musgraves confirmed that she will be performing a special tribute to Loretta Lynn.
There's a good chance that we will see another announcement during the weekend, or maybe there will be a surprise performance that's kinda kept under wraps. For me, I would love to see Adele or Beyoncé because they are top nominees this year.
The Grammy's are all about creating moments and year after year, they do deliver. Award shows have declined in ratings over the last few years. With streaming services, many people just skip through most of it to see their favorites, or many people just don't even watch the thing at all, and they'll see highlights on social media.
We've seen some of the big music award shows not only reveal the entire musical lineup, but also announce the song that artists would be performing. For me, that kind of spoils the show. I like the surprises, but I understand they are trying to rope in as many people into the live telecast. With COVID, the Grammy's, they've altered the production of their show. In 2021, there was no audience and performances were a little bit more stripped down in terms of stage design. The awards were presented outside.
Last year, they returned indoors with artists sitting at tables, a move we've seen several other shows do as well. So far, country music doesn't have a huge presence on the show, some years, we'll see multiple artists. But so far, we have Luke Combs, who will be performing for the first time on the show. Very interested to see what he will be performing.
Shania Twain, whose album Queen of Me is out right now, she will be presenting. In recent years, only one country category has been presented on the TV broadcast. There is a pre-telecast where the majority of awards are presented, and you can watch that online on the Grammy website. During the last few years, the Grammy's have missed out on some major moments in the country field, like when Tanya Tucker won her first Grammy after forty-one years and forty nominations. Or when Sturgill Simpson took the album of the year beating contemporary favorites, he concluded his speech by saying, “I guess the revolution will not be televised.” Those would have been huge moments for country music if they were broadcast on TV. Of course, that would give those artists so much more exposure.
Country music is excluded from the general categories where in years past, you have one or two nominees in the Best New Artist or Song of the Year category. But this year, we have absolutely none, which is very unfortunate.
Looking at the country nominees, we have a mix of traditional favorites, contemporary artists, and the usual random surprises. For best solo performance, you've got:
Miranda Lambert - “In His Arms”
Maren Morris - “Circles Around This Town”
Zach Bryan - “Something in the Orange”
Willie Nelson - “Live Forever”
Kelsea Ballerini - “Heart First”
In the last few years, this award has been given to Chris Stapleton, Vince Gill, and Kacey Musgraves. From this year's nominees, Willie Nelson and Maren Morris have won in this category previously, Kelsea and Zach are first timers in this one, and this is actually Zach Bryan’s first nomination ever.
Miranda has been nominated six times since this category was introduced, which is the most out of any artist. Willie, Maren, and Miranda are Grammy favorites year after year. Kelsea’s “Heart First” didn't do anything at country radio, but she has been the surprise contemporary nominee a few times now at the Grammy's.
I think the vote will split between Miranda and Maren, and we will see Willie Nelson take this one. For me, my favorite is Miranda. “In His Arms” is one of my favorite things she's recorded lately, but I think this one will go to Willie.
For Best Country Song, this one is presented to the songwriters.
Cody Johnson - “Til You Can’t”
Luke Combs - “Doin’ This”
Taylor Swift featuring Chris Stapleton – “I Bet You Think of Me”
Miranda Lambert - “If I Was A Cowboy”
Willie Nelson - “I’ll Love You ‘Til The Day I Die”
Maren Morris - “Circles Around This Town”
You might have noticed there are six nominees in this category story. Two of these songs were not played much on country radio, but I think they are the two strongest contenders. Taylor Swift's last nomination in the country genre came in 2018 for writing “Better Man” that Little Big Town recorded. Chris Stapleton would be the upset in that match that everyone thought Taylor would take. Taylor has had five nominations in this category and two wins for “White Horse” and “Mean.”
Lori McKenna is also a co-writer on this song giving it another huge advantage. Lori is tied for the most wins in this category with Josh Kerr. They each have three wins, and a major bonus is that Chris Stapleton performs on this song as well. I think their only competitor is “I’ll Love You ‘Til The Day I Die.” You have a legend Willie Nelson who has won this category three times, but you have Chris Stapleton as a writer. He won for “Cold” last year and Rodney Crowell, who has won this award once and has four nominations.
Cody Johnson's “Til You Can’t” was one of the biggest songs at country radio in years, but I don't think we'll see a Grammy win. While “Circles Around This Town” for Maren and Miranda’s “If I Was A Cowboy” were great radio singles, I don't think they're strong enough to win this category this year.
I really, really wanted to love Taylor's song and I played it several times on my radio show but I think it's probably one of those songs that sound better live. It's a good, well written song and about as country as we've heard Taylor. But for me, Willie's delivery of “I’ll Love You ‘Til The Day I Die” is the absolute winner. Very well written, and of course, Chris Stapleton and Rodney Crowell, are iconic.
Nominees for the best country duo or group are:
“Wishful Drinking” - Ingrid Andress and Sam Hunt
“Does He Love You” - Reba and Dolly Parton
“Midnight Rider’s Prayer” - Brothers Osborne
“Outrunnin’ Your Memory” - Luke Combs & Miranda Lambert
“Never Wanted To Be That Girl” - Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde
“Going Where the Lonely Go” - Robert Plan and Alison Krauss
Brothers Osborne would win for the first time last year, but I don't see them or Ingrid Andress and Sam Hunt winning this year. “Outrunnin’ Your Memory” has that contemporary power with Miranda and Luke.
Reba’s “Does He Love You” won in 1994 with Linda Davis. If Reba wins this year, it will become the only song to do so twice in this category. It seems like Dolly has just become an even bigger icon over the last few years so I could definitely see them winning.
Then you have Robert Plant and Alison Krauss. Alison has more Grammy's than anyone in country music with twenty-seven, and she's just behind Beyoncé for female wins. But Alison is tied in fourth place for most Grammy wins overall. And with Robert Plant, they have three nominations together this year, and they've won six times previously including the overall album and record of the year.
I could also definitely see Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde taking this. “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” was a huge song at country radio. It took the ACM and the CMA for vocal event of the year. It's one of those critical favorites, radio favorites, I would love to see that one win.
I would say this is probably a race between Reba and Dolly and Alison and Robert Plant.
Country album of the year, it's the big one.
Lindeville – Ashley McBryde
Palomino – Miranda lambert
Humble Quest – Maren Morris
A Beautiful Time – Willie Nelson
Growin’ Up – Luke Combs
Luke won the CMA for the same category, but it's arguably his weakest album to date. Miranda has had the most wins with two. This is Miranda's second nomination in this category, and I think it's her best shot at winning, and this is a category that Willie Nelson has yet to win. For me, I would love to see Ashley McBryde take this one. It features a lot of Nashville favorites like Brothers Osborne and Brandy Clark. I'd say this category is a well-rounded representation of country music and I would say this is the award that we will most likely see presented on TV on Sunday.
Now, you can do all the research in the world and try to make your attempts at predicting like I just did, but the truth is the Grammy's are just always kind of odd. Sometimes the critical favorite wins, sometimes it's the flavor of the moment. There's never an obvious choice. It's not always going to be the best selling or most played artist. Some years, we have a great crop of nominees and sometimes it's a little underwhelming.
Overall, this year, I think we have a lot of great nominees. It favors more on the traditional side, which is a great move for country music. Just country music getting this kind of exposure on national TV along with all these other music formats because what you want, you want people to be introduced to an artist that maybe they've never heard before. When Luke Combs takes the stage on Sunday night, you're going to see an increase of his record sales. Luke is a huge artist, and he has been for many years now. But getting him on this Grammy stage, it just opens the doors for even more opportunities for him. I think he is a great artist to represent country music.
We're going to see Kacey Musgraves who will be honoring Loretta Lynn, and that will be a moment of the night. So those are two things to really look forward to on Sunday night at the Grammy's. I will have a Grammy Post-Show wrap up with all the highlights following Sunday's show, so be sure to subscribe so you don't miss it.